Senior Manager Marketing Analytics Forecaster

About SimpliSafe

We’re a high-tech home security company that’s passionate about protecting the life you’ve built and our mission of keeping Every Home Secure. And we’ve created a culture here that cares just as deeply about the career you’re building. Ours is a no ego culture of collaboration and innovation where those seeking their next challenge can find big opportunities and make a huge impact on the lives of all those who we protect. We don’t just want you to work here. We want you to grow and thrive here.
We’re embracing a hybrid work model that enables our teams to split their time between office and home. Hybrid for us means we expect our teams to come together in our state-of-the-art office on two core days, typically Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday – working together in person and choosing where they work for the remainder of the week. We all benefit from flexibility and get to use the best of both worlds to get our work done.

Why are we hiring?

Well, we’re growing and thriving. So, we need smart, talented, and humble people who share our values to join us as we disrupt the home security space and relentlessly pursue our mission of keeping Every Home Secure. 

About the role

SimpliSafe is seeking a highly motivated, detail-oriented Senior Manager, Marketing Analytics to build, maintain, and continuously improve forecasts for the company’s most critical DTC metrics: sales, subscriptions, and key unit economics.

This is a high-ownership, high-visibility individual contributor role. You will be the primary owner of daily and monthly forecasting, and a key contributor to quarterly outlooks and planning. You’ll partner with Marketing, Finance/FP&A, Supply Chain/Operations and Product to ensure forecasts are trusted, decision-ready, and tightly connected to real business levers.

You’ll develop a deep understanding of the end-to-end customer funnel and subscriber lifecycle, translate promotions and marketing plans into forecastable drivers, and improve accuracy through better models, stronger assumptions, and systematic error analysis. You will be expected to proactively surface risks/opportunities and provide leadership with clear narratives on what changed, why, and what to do next.

What you’ll do

1) Own the forecast (system + cadence)

• Own daily and monthly forecasts for: traffic/leads, orders, activations/installs, new subscribers, ARPU, and revenue.
• Produce and publish weekly/monthly/quarterly forecast updates with clear assumptions, versioning, and stakeholder-ready outputs.
• Maintain a driver tree that connects controllable inputs (media, promos, pricing, channel mix) to outcomes (sales, subscribers, revenue).

2) Build driver-based models that leadership can trust

• Build and maintain forecasting models (time series + causal drivers) that incorporate seasonality, promo calendars, pricing/offer changes, channel mix, and operational constraints.
• Layer assumption-driven adjustments on top of model outputs when business context changes (new promo mechanics, product launches, macro shifts), and document the “why.”
• Develop scenario plans (base/upside/downside) and sensitivities for media spend, promo depth, pricing changes, and macro/competitive shifts.

3) Forecast marketing impact + lead media measurement (incrementality-first)

• Translate marketing plans into forecast inputs: spend by channel, expected reach/response, lags, saturation/diminishing returns.
• Incorporate incrementality learnings (A/B, geo, lift tests) and/or MMM/MTA outputs into response curves and forecast drivers—explicitly separating correlated performance from expected incremental impact.
• Partner on media measurement and marketing performance analytics: design and analyze incrementality tests (A/B, holdouts, geo/lift), partner on MMM/MTA, and translate results into response curves, CAC/ROAS benchmarks, and planning assumptions.
• Diagnose funnel shifts (conversion, approval, attach) and lifecycle shifts (retention/churn) and explain performance in plain language.

4) Own Direct P&L tie-outs and performance attribution

• Own reporting that ties operating forecasts to Direct P&L outcomes (sales, subscription, revenue and unit economics), including clear bridges of forecast vs actuals.
• Ensure consistent metric definitions and reconciliations across systems (billing, marketing, finance), with an audit-friendly methodology and change log.
• Provide leadership with a tight “forecast vs actuals” story: what moved, what drove it, and what actions are recommended.

5) Innovate and improve forecast accuracy over time

• Own forecast performance tracking (e.g., WAPE/MAPE, bias) and run root-cause error decomposition by channel/promo/segment/horizon.
• Implement improvements: better features/drivers, segmentation/cohorts, hierarchical forecasts, improved promo pull-forward treatment, anomaly detection/alerting, and automation.
• Partner with Analytics Engineering to improve pipeline reliability, speed, and data quality—reducing manual effort and increasing trust.

How success is measured

• Forecast accuracy improves over time (lower error and bias) across sales, subscription, and unit economics at daily/monthly/quarterly horizons.
• Media measurement + testing enablement: support team-wide measurement and testing initiatives for media investments, translating results into planning assumptions and forecast updates.
• Forecast methodology innovation: stronger driver tree, better segmentation, improved promo and media response modeling, monitoring/alerting, and more automation.
• Leadership impact: recognized as a go-to resource for business performance narratives, risk/opportunity surfacing, and decision support.
• Adoption + trust: forecasts are the planning source of truth, with consistent cadence, reliable tie-outs, and fewer shadow forecasts.

Technical qualifications (must-haves)

• Bachelor’s degree in a quantitative field (Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, Computer Science, Operations/Supply Chain, Business Analytics). Master’s/MBA preferred.
• 7+ years in forecasting, planning, or advanced analytics (with exposure to marketing measurement/analytics); strong preference for DTC and/or subscription businesses.
• Advanced SQL and Python are required (complex data extraction, transformation, modeling, automation, reproducible analysis).
• Strong forecasting toolkit: time series, regression/causal modeling, scenario/sensitivity modeling; experience with hierarchical forecasting a plus.
• Strong grasp of marketing effectiveness measurement (incrementality, attribution limitations, media response, saturation).
• Experience analyzing experiments (A/B, holdouts, geo tests) and translating results into planning assumptions.
• Strong Excel/Google Sheets skills for stakeholder-ready scenario models.
• BI proficiency (Tableau preferred) for both dashboard building and self-serve reporting.

Qualitative qualifications

• Executive-ready communicator turns complex modeling into clear decisions, tradeoffs, and recommendations.
• Strong business judgment in DTC/subscription mechanics: funnel dynamics, subscriber lifecycle, pricing/promotions, and operational constraints that affect realized demand and revenue.
• Self-starter with high ownership independently identifies problems/opportunities, drives work to completion, and escalates risks early.
• Thrives in ambiguity defines problems, builds structure, and delivers on a cadence without being micromanaged.
• Influences without authority builds alignment across Marketing, Finance, Operations, Product, and Engineering.
• Process-minded: builds repeatable systems, documentation, and governance others will use.

What Values You’ll Share

• Customer Obsessed - Building deep empathy for our customers, putting them at the core of our work, and developing strong, long-term relationships with them.
• Aim High - Always challenging ourselves and others to raise the bar.
• No Ego - Maintaining a “no job too small” attitude, and an open, inclusive and humble style.
• One Team - Taking a highly collaborative approach to achieving success.
• Lift As We Climb - Investing in developing others and helping others around us succeed.
• Lean & Nimble - Working with agility and efficiency to experiment in an often ambiguous environment.

What We Offer

• A mission- and values-driven culture and a safe, inclusive environment where you can build, grow and thrive  
• A comprehensive total rewards package that supports your wellness and provides security for SimpliSafers and their families (For more information on our total rewards please click here)
• Free SimpliSafe system and professional monitoring for your home. 
• Employee Resource Groups (ERGs) that bring people together, give opportunities to network, mentor and develop, and advocate for change.

The target annual base pay range for this role is $160,000 to $235,000.

This target annual base pay range represents our good-faith estimate of what we expect to pay for this role. We use a market-based compensation approach to set our target annual base pay ranges and make adjustments annually. We carefully tailor individual compensation packages, including base pay, taking into consideration employees’ job-related skills, experience, qualifications, work location, and other relevant business factors. 

Beyond base pay, we offer a Total Rewards package that may include participation in our annual bonus program, equity, and other forms of compensation, in addition to a full range of medical, retirement, and lifestyle benefits. More details can be found here.

We’re committed to fair and equitable pay practices, as well as pay transparency. We regularly review our programs to ensure they remain competitive and aligned with our values.

We wholeheartedly embrace and actively seek applications from all individuals, no matter how they identify. We are committed to cultivating a diverse and inclusive workplace, and we believe our work is enriched when we incorporate a multitude of perspectives, backgrounds, and experiences. We want everyone who works here to thrive and contribute to not only our mission of keeping every home secure, but also to making our workplace safe and supportive for others. If a reasonable accommodation may be needed to fully participate in the job application or interview process, to perform the essential functions of a position, or to receive other benefits and privileges of employment, please contact [email protected].